In the “extended baseline scenario,” which is the one currently written into law, we don’t have a debt problem, but we have much higher taxes and, in the short-term, a likely recession. In the “alternative” scenario, we’ve got a huge debt problem, but lower taxes and less short-term austerity.
The flaw in this overly simplistic graph of debt scenarios is the wildcards of economic growth and technology innovation.
If we grow the economy we can cut taxes and reduce the debt at the same time. Tech innovation causes economic growth.
That would mean massive deregulation of the economy and executing the right government policies. What are the odds of this happening?